World history is a history of conflict. This is how we study the past, interpret the present, and imagine the future.
The framework that once separated force from its use has collapsed. The concept of a “deterrent” — whether in the form of nuclear arsenals, military bases, or the threat of sanctions — relied on a shared set of rules that actors agreed upon for the sake of predictability. These rules are no longer universal.
After the collapse of the USSR — the systemic adversary that balanced Cold War architecture — the United States began to search for new forms of legitimate expansion under unipolar conditions. That search included not only institutional projection (NATO enlargement, the export of democratic norms, globalization), but also precedents of direct force applied outside procedural bounds. The 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia marked the first break: a military intervention without UN Security Council authorization, framed in humanitarian language, effectively legitimized selective use of force — not as an exception, but as a tool of political influence.
Symbolic codes such as “surgical airstrikes” or “special military operation” no longer signal deviation. They are becoming part of the new norm. The legacy of the 1990s — including the illusion of a “post-historical” peace — was not the start of a stable phase, but an episode built on a temporary strategic vacuum.
The war in Ukraine is not an anomaly. It is an illustration of how force now operates: not as demonstration, but as destruction; not as threat, but as prolonged, indeterminate conflict. What matters is not the capabilities of the parties, but their political resilience to sustained costs.
Strategic coalitions that previously relied on institutionalized status quo management are losing the ability to contain escalation. Mechanisms of deterrence — from diplomatic engagement to economic interdependence — either fail or are ignored. They no longer set limits; they merely reflect the inertia of the previous order.
This is not a transitional moment. It is the beginning of a new historical phase — one in which balance is absent, actors are undefined, and norms are no longer universal. The world is becoming political again in the most literal sense: through contestation over what counts as a norm, not compliance with it.
The relative stability of the late 20th century rested on a unique configuration of mutual constraint. That configuration is no longer reproducible. ■